Market update: Surprise growth for the UK too little, too late for the Prime Minister

* Monthly GDP grew by 0.3% in March 2026, following growth of 0.4% in February, despite the outbreak of war in Iran.

* In the three months to March 2026, GDP grew by 0.6%.

* The unexpected resilience of the economy is set to boost the FTSE 100 in early trade amid hopes surrounding Trump's talks in China.

* But the performance is likely to be too little, too late for UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club

"Despite the outbreak of war in Iran hitting sentiment, wallets and triggering deep uncertainty, the UK economy has shown surprising resilience. Growth of 0.3% in March hardly blows the lights out, but it confounds expectations, with the UK's sturdiness surprising on the upside. A contraction had been expected. Instead, the huge services sector grew by 0.3%, while activity on construction sites continued to improve, with output rising 1.5%.

For the three months to March, the picture was even brighter, with growth of 0.6% for the economy as a whole and the services sector expanding by 0.8%. Upward revisions to earlier snapshots have helped paint a rosier picture of activity, as Budget uncertainty faded into the rear-view mirror and consumers and businesses became more confident. The slow but steady improvement, though, is likely to be upended by the energy crunch, with a long tail of repercussions expected. Nevertheless, the FTSE 100 is set to be on the front foot in early trade as investors cheer the more robust performance of the economy, amid hopes it has the strength to endure the fallout from the conflict a little better. Trade talks between Trump and Xi Jinping are also helping to lift optimism amid hopes Beijing could help prise open the door to a resolution to the conflict with Iran.

The more upbeat UK performance is also likely to be too little, too late for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Like the economy, he has been languishing under a lacklustre image, even though his premiership has brought stability to the UK after years of volatility, helping fuel a rebound in the FTSE 100.

But now the scale of the revolt by backbench MPs, and the prospect of a leadership challenge from Health Secretary Wes Streeting, is keeping headlines occupied and investors on edge. UK gilt yields have retraced from the multi-decade highs of 5.13% reached earlier this week, but they are likely to remain volatile as machinations in Westminster stay front of mind."

Ends

For further information contact:

Jo Thorne: jo.thorne@wealthclub.co.uk

Wealth Club

Wealth Club was founded by former Hargreaves Lansdown director Alex Davies in 2016. At Hargreaves Lansdown Alex and his team were responsible for launching its SIPP business and growing it to be the UK's largest SIPP provider. Alex was a director of and shareholder in Hargreaves Lansdown which floated on the stock exchange in 2007. This meant that age 38 he was in the fortunate position to be able to retire. With time and a big tax bill on his hands Alex began investing in start-ups using the EIS and VCT schemes. Whilst there were some great opportunities out there, there was very little good quality information to help people decide where to invest and it was difficult to know whom to trust in a very "word of mouth" type of industry. In most cases it was also very difficult to apply for and monitor these investments online.

With this in mind Alex set up Wealth Club. Today Wealth Club is the largest non-advisory investment service exclusively for high net worth and sophisticated investors. It is the biggest broker of Venture Capital Trusts and EIS funds as well as recently launching a discretionary management service and opening up Private Markets funds to individual investors.

Today Wealth Club has 70,000 members who receive regular information on investments from them. Of those 14,000 have become clients and invested more than £1.8 billion through the platform. Its clients typically have £1 to £5 million of wealth, although 22% have more than £5 million and 6% more than £10 million. The business is completely online, although clients can speak to an expert on the phone who will answer their call within a few rings.

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Published in M2 PressWIRE on Thursday, 14 May 2026
Copyright (C) 2026, M2 Communications Ltd.


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